According to BloombergThe Global Energy Transition Index recently released by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) shows that the global renewable energy market is expected to grow rapidly in the first quarter of 2024.According to the "Market Outlook" report,it is estimated that the global new installed capacity of photovoltaics will reach an astonishing 655GWdc in 2024,a significant increase compared to about 444GWdc in 2023.This growth marks the continued investment and expansion of renewable energy worldwide,especially in the photovoltaic sector.

The report shows that under various forecast scenarios,the conservative estimate of the global new installed PV capacity is 520GWdc,while the optimistic scenario is as high as 655GWdc,and the medium scenario forecasts a figure of 574GWdc.Behind this strong growth,China undoubtedly continues to play a leading role.It is estimated that China’s PV installed capacity will reach 313.7GWdc in 2024,accounting for 54.7% of the global new capacity.

The U.S.India,Brazil,and Germany follow,with expected additions of 40.6GWdc,18.1GWdc,17GWdc,and 16.5GWdc,respectively.In Europe,countries such as Spain,the Netherlands,and Italy will also significantly increase their solar PV installations,reflecting the continents continued commitment to renewable energy.

As global efforts to reduce carbon footprints and enhance energy independence intensify,the rapid development of the solar PV industry has become a key solution to these challenges.BNEFs research further highlights cumulative solar PV capacity forecasts for European countries by 2030,showing Germany,Italy,and Spains leading positions in Europe.

In addition to capacity growth,the solar PV industry has experienced significant changes in polysilicon prices.In 2023,polysilicon prices fell by 74%,which is significant for reducing the overall cost of solar PV systems.However,the report also notes that despite price declines in China,premiums persist in non-China markets,partly due to stringent supply chain requirements in the U.S.market.

Meanwhile,China continues to show growth momentum in solar cell and module exports,with 2023 exports increasing from 181GW in 2022 to 255GW,surpassing all installed capacity outside mainland China and the U.S.This growth not only reflects Chinas dominance in the global solar PV supply chain but also indicates strong global demand for solar PV products.

Although shipping disruptions in the Red Sea region have posed challenges to global supply chains,BNEF expects limited material impact on Europeanmodule supplies.Despite rising freight costs,ample module inventories in Europe and oversupply in the shipping industry are expected to allow the solar PV market to maintain its strong growth momentum.